National Economic Outlook - March 2016
Written By:
Ingo Winzer, President
Ingo Winzer, President
Local Market Monitor
The
percent of people who live in a home
they own has varied between 63 and 69 in the last 50 years. The difference doesn't
seem like much but it translates into 6 million homes.
From
1994 to 2004 the home ownership rate rose from 64 to 69 percent, abetted by
government policy, low interest rates, and finally by the wide availability of
sub-prime mortgages. Since that peak it fell steadily to 63 percent last year.
We
might just be back where we started, but we might also be going into new
territory. The fact that the rate was slightly higher at the end of 2015 than
at the beginning suggests demand for single-family homes will soon begin to
increase. On the other hand, the large amounts of debt younger people already
hold from college loans suggests that fewer of them will qualify - or want to
qualify - for a mortgage for quite some time. I think the latter possibility is
more likely.
Total
jobs in February were up 1.9 percent over
last year. Jobs were up a measly 0.2 percent in manufacturing, 2.3 percent in
retail trade, 3.2 percent in business services, 3.5 percent in healthcare, and
3.3 percent at restaurants. As usual, government jobs were virtually flat.
Unemployment remains at 4.9 percent.
Jobs
in trucking - the movement of most
goods around the country - were up just 1 percent in January, the lowest rate
in five years.
