National Economic Outlook- April 2016

Written By:
Ingo Winzer, President

Local Market Monitor

From 1990 to 2000, manufacturing production in the US increased 50 percent. From 2005 to 2015 it was flat. There was a recession, which accounts for some of the stagnation, but growth in the next 10 years will probably be very mild - which means that it won't create new jobs. After a short run in 2014, job growth in manufacturing in the past year was zero.

Even though manufacturing production is now 70 percent higher than in 1990, the number of jobs in the industry is now 5 million lower - a decrease of 30 percent.

These are important facts for real estate because they make clear that future homeowners will have jobs in the service industries, where employment is less secure and pay - except at management levels - is often lower.

Total jobs in March were up 2 percent from last year. Jobs were up 5 percent in construction - good but still not indicating a rebound in demand; up 2.5 percent in retail trade; up 3.1 percent in business services; up 3.4 percent in healthcare; up 3.4 percent at restaurants; and up 100,000 in government - 0.5 percent - all at the local level.

Unemployment was up slightly to 5 percent.