Local
data for October aren't available yet, but the overall effect of the hurricanes
in Texas and Florida on jobs will probably be transient. Overall, jobs in the
US in October were up 1.4 percent from last year, up from 1.2 percent in
September and in line with previous months.
This
doesn't mean the affected local markets will snap back. In both the Houston and
Miami areas about 15,000 jobs were lost. (In Puerto Rico, the devastation is so
great that no data at all are available.) Ironically, although the Houston
economy may recover faster as refineries get back on-line, Miami will probably
have a more complete recovery. Even before the hurricanes, growth in energy-dependent
Houston had been slow - almost zero in 2016 - while growth in South Florida has
been high for years, buoyed by foreign capital.
The
hurricanes came on top of a national economy that the Fed says is going great
guns but in terms of new jobs has been steadily slowing. Last year job growth
was 1.7 percent, the year before that 2.1 percent. This year 1.5 percent is the
new normal.
In
October jobs were up 1.4 percent from last year, including (on a very positive
note) 1.2 percent in manufacturing, 2.5 percent in business services, 1.9
percent in healthcare, 1.9 percent at restaurants, and 1.8 percent in finance.
Retail jobs were down a half percent and government jobs were basically flat.
Unemployment in October was 4.1 percent.
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