In previous economic cycles, the performance of the US economy
could be measured by the growth or decline in jobs. No more. By measures like
corporate profits or GDP, the economy is doing well today, but job growth keeps
slowing down. What gives?
In a word, computers. The greater use of computers and information
technology keeps displacing workers. This phenomenon isn't new -
computer-controlled machines have been around a long time - but has accelerated
with the build-out of the internet. Ironically, one of the strongest effects
can be seen in the information sector itself, where jobs are down 2 percent
over the past year. We all know that newspapers have been losing jobs, but that
now extends to the movie and TV industries and to telecommunications.
It's difficult to know where this process will end. What will these
displaced workers do instead? They can't all be retrained for high-tech jobs,
especially since high-tech jobs themselves will eventually be relentlessly
pared down.
In the meantime, the real estate industry is likely to follow the
auto industry, where more and more vehicles are leased because fewer customers
can afford to buy.
In November, jobs were up 1.4 percent from last year. Jobs were up
1.5 percent in manufacturing,1.8 percent in finance, 2.7 percent in business
services, 2 percent in healthcare, and 2.1 percent at restaurants. Jobs in
retail and government were flat. The unemployment rate is bumping along at 4.1
percent.
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