Written By:
Ingo Winzer, President
Ingo Winzer, President
Local Market Monitor
A
big drop in the unemployment rate, to
6.7 percent, has raised expectations for faster economic growth. These days
a rate of 5 percent might be considered "full employment" because the
nature of the workforce has changed and many people choose not to have steady
work, so we're about 2.8 million jobs short, which isn't a lot. After the last
recession, the economy recovered 4.5 million jobs in just two years.
A
stronger economy so far doesn't show up in the employment figures. The number
of jobs in December was up 1.6 percent
from last year, on a par with recent performance. Jobs were up 0.7 percent in
manufacturing, 2.6 percent in retail, 3.4 percent in business services, 1.4
percent in healthcare, and 2.9 percent in restaurants. Jobs in government were
flat.
Jobs
in construction were up only 2
percent. This is where the economy so far has fallen short and where faster
economic growth is likely to come from. During the building boom of 2005-07 a
million "excess" construction jobs were created, so that level isn't
our standard, but we're still down a million jobs from a "normal"
amount of construction.
