Written By:
Ingo Winzer, President
Ingo Winzer, President
Local Market Monitor
Despite
the best efforts of government officials to pull the right levers, the US
economy still runs in cycles. In fact, it seems prone to bigger swings despite
more regulation of the details of business - a sort of forest-and-trees
situation.
While
it's too soon to panic, one coal mine canary has signaled that the cycle is again
turning. Over the last few months, the number of new temp jobs has slowed sharply.
This used to be mainly secretaries but now includes anything from computer
programmers to machine operators. There are more than 3 million of them and
they are the tide in our outsource economy, easily ebbing and flowing with
business needs - and foretelling the last three recessions. Last year they
increased 4 percent, this year just 1 percent. We'll keep an eye on this.
Jobs
in July were up 1.7 percent over last year, confirming the slower growth we've
seen the last few months. Jobs were flat in manufacturing and government, up 2
percent in retail trade, 2.6 percent in business services, 2.6 percent at
restaurants, and 3 percent in healthcare. Unemployment remains at 4.9 percent.
Finally
reacting to higher home prices and rents, the construction sector added 200,000
jobs in the past year. A slower economy would crimp that expansion, which would
put current property holders in a strong position for years.
