Month-to-month
changes in economic statistics usually tell us nothing about where the economy
is headed, there's too much variability. But a six month comparison might be
enlightening at a time when the economy seems to be slowing.
In
January, the total number of jobs in the economy was up 2.0 percent from the
previous year - this happened to be the high-spot of growth in the last couple
of years. In June, that growth was 1.5 percent.
What
accounts for the drop, especially since jobs in healthcare - one of the biggest
sectors of the economy - actually did better in June? Most important, business
services did worse: the change from 2.5 percent in January to 2.2 in June is
meaningful because the category includes so many jobs. There was also a slowdown
of growth in restaurants, finance, retail, manufacturing and - somewhat
ominously - construction.
Whether
commercial or residential, construction projects take time and money, and
developers won't start a new one if they think future demand will be weak - which
usually means they're having trouble selling their existing product.
