National Economic Outlook - February 2016
Written By:
Ingo Winzer, President
Ingo Winzer, President
Local Market Monitor
In
the long run, the relative prosperity of a country depends on producing things
that other countries want. Among the desirable things the US currently produces
are food, complicated manufactured goods like airplanes, technological and scientific knowledge, and political stability. Technology and science have allowed the US
economy to thrive but at the cost of concentrating income in fewer hands;
technology and science are an elite specialty. As job-intensive manufacturing
has moved off-shore, job opportunities for the majority of American workers are
now confined to lower-pay service
industries.
Since
2000, the US has added 10 million jobs,
ALL in the service industries. This rapid shunting to lower-paid jobs indicates
a permanent shift to lower-cost
housing: smaller houses, more apartments, more single-family rentals.
Total
jobs in January were up 1.9 percent
from last year, following the trend of recent months. Jobs were up just 0.4
percent in manufacturing, but 2 percent in retail trade, 3.3 percent in
business services, 3.3 percent in healthcare, and 3.6 percent at restaurants.
Jobs in government were flat. Unemployment slid to 4.9 percent.
Somewhat
ominously, the growth of jobs in transportation
- mainly the movement of goods - has steadily
fallen, from 5 percent a year a go to just 1.5 percent in January.
