National Economic Outlook - January 2019

Written By: Ingo Winzer, President of Local Market Monitor, Inc.

The economy is always changing, even though economists routinely pretend the data from one period can be directly compared with data from another. Some of the interesting changes can be seen by looking at the types of jobs the economy is creating.

For example, in 2018, of the 2.7 million new jobs created, 130,000 were at management and computer consulting companies, 100,000 at temp agencies, 160,000 at warehouse and delivery companies, and 280,000 in manufacturing.

The manufacturing jobs probably reflect more production from highly-automated factories that can now compete with imports; the warehouse and delivery jobs reflect the rise of on-line shopping; the consulting jobs show that companies are trying to adapt to a new environment; and the temp jobs show that companies are more aware of fluctuating demand for their products.

Computerized manufacturing and shopping are with us to stay, we’ll see more of that. But temp and consulting jobs will be the first to go when the economy slows down, an instability built into the system.

In December, total jobs were up 1.8 percent from last year. Jobs were up 2.8 percent in business services, 2.3 percent in manufacturing, 2.3 percent in healthcare, 2.2 percent at restaurants, and 1.3 percent in finance. Unemployment increased slightly, to 3.9 percent.