The
number of jobs in September was up 1.4 percent from last year, a repeat of
August and a confirmation that the August data weren't an outlier. It's now
most likely that we'll see a further weakening in the months ahead, and the big
question is whether the economy can keep gliding along at this reduced pace.
The
last two recessions began when job growth edged down towards 1 percent and then
swiftly dropped to zero and below. If we see a break point like this again, job
growth could be negative in the next year.
Jobs
in September were up 2.6 percent in healthcare, 2.1 percent in business
services, 2 percent at restaurants, 1.2 percent in finance, and 0.8 percent in government. Retail jobs
were down again. Although jobs were up in manufacturing and construction, both
sectors continue on a downward trend - a negative indicator for the economy.
And within business services, temp jobs - another bell-weather category - were
up just 0.6 percent.
There's
more bad news than good news here, because it's difficult to see how these
negative trends will be reversed.
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